With the Covid-19 outbreak, social-distancing measures have proven themselves to be one of the most effective means to prevent the disease from spreading. What could be the implications in terms of mobility in rural and urban areas, and what doors could it leave open for the future of mobility in the EU?

Confinement, urban exodus, and remote working all have been key components of the Covid-19 experience these past months. However, it is necessary to also have a closer look at other and more encompassing aspects of the crisis, as they could have unforeseen repercussions on the transport sector and mobility in general, in the short and medium term. For example, it is still unclear whether the consequences of the economic crisis will favour the development of sustainable technologies, strategies, or investments.

Positive Impact of COVID-19 on micro mobilities around Europe

The Covid-19 crisis has had a positive impact on the use of micro-mobilities. This mode of transport includes active mobility such as walking, cycling or clean individual transport such as electric scooters. In contrast to public transport, it is easier to physically distance oneself from another. Indeed, the proportion of cyclists in European cities has risen sharply because of Covid-19 (Bert and al., 2020). Moreover, these micro-mobilities are inexpensive alternatives for municipalities because they require little investment in infrastructure. These micro-mobilities are also linked to various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as: Health and Well-being (3), Industry, Innovation and Infrastructures (9), Sustainable Cities and Communities (11), and Climate Action (13). Indeed, micro-mobilities, in the case of walking and cycling, lead to the practice of physical activity. Moreover, cities of all sizes, with a goal of sustainable development, will be the key players in the implementation of green and smart transports infrastructures.

In Paris, for example, more than 650 kilometres of cycle paths were initiated to facilitate the movement of employees returning to work on 11th of May, the date of the first phase of the French restrictions’ ease. These ways, called “corona cycle paths”, respond to the urgency of the situation and a significant demand from Parisians according to the Mayor Anne Hidalgo. In Milan, the city council’s ambition is to make the streets more accessible to cycling and walking rather than to cars. According to the municipality, traffic jams have been reduced by 30 and 75% and a significant reduction in pollution has been noted. This approach will be supported during the summer with the transformation of 35 kilometres of streets into shared spaces for soft mobility. These measures have been taken in particular following the drop in the use of public transport in favour of cycling by the Milanese according to The Moovit Public Transit Index. In Helsinki and Espoo, the self-service bicycle season started earlier than previous years. Subscriptions were available for purchase from 19th of March and accessible bicycles from 23rd of March. This early opening is linked to the higher demand from residents due to the coronavirus crisis but also because the municipalities in both cities believe that the decline in the use of public transport, where physical distance is complicated, can limit the spread of the virus. Thus, some 240 stations in Helsinki and 110 in Espoo were set up with 3500 bicycles.

Citizens’ initiatives to improve sustainable transport services should also be noted. In Denmark, Germany, Poland and Sweden, local entrepreneurs and residents have initiated Interreg projects for more transport bicycles in urban mobility.

Negative Impact of COVID-19 on public transport usage and the effects on the car industry

Because of COVID-19, clean mobility may suffer some drawbacks, as, for fear of the virus, one-person car-use is expected to increase, at the expense of public transportation like buses, trains, and carpooling. There is already some evidence available of that trend when looking at Chinese cities: people who previously owned a private car tend to use it extensively, while people depending on public transportation in cities massively turn to micro-mobilities like walking and biking. Several scenarios are here to be considered, greatly revolving around what is going to happen in the car industry, which could turn out to be both beneficial and detrimental to the environment.

Let’s remember first that the car industry represents a very important share in the European economy, which has been hardly hit by lockdown measures. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) expects a sharp decline of the European car market, estimated at no less than 25% in 2020. It could take up to five years to European car companies to get back to the production levels of 2019. In order to recover from this crisis we can expect Europe to heavily invest in the car industry, which represents thousands of jobs. The way this predictable back-up is going to be done is what is going to influence our scenarios.

According to a McKinsey paper and a Renault executive, over the short to mid-term, the COVID-19 crisis could delay the development of hybrids and electric cars, as day-to-day cash-management issues are to take precedence over innovation and environmental-friendly investments and transition. This would surely be a bad omen for clean mobilities, so as the shrink for cars in population demand (40 to 50%), according to this line of argument.

However, and this is our second scenario, the nature and modalities of the subsidies granted by governments could also represent an opportunity to green cars. The fact that Tesla just became the most valuable carmaker on the stock exchange is significant and could lead to a change in manufacturers’ attitudes. If the subsidies have some conditionality for environmental transition, this could incentivise manufacturers to boost electric cars production. For instance, France announced 200,000 conversion premiums to support demand and production on electric cars, which led to electric car sales to boom. Bearing in mind nonetheless, that electric cars are not a panacea, as besides the need for rare earth metals, and batteries’ waste issues, everything depends on how electricity at the national level is being produced.

Therefore, it turns out everything here depends on the subsidies regulation adopted to rescue the car sector, so one reason more to continue the struggle for cleaner mobilities!

Micro-mobilities on the rise vs. individual car-use

The question then arises as to whether micro-mobilities will be able to grow sustainably after the health crisis. Micro-mobilities offer a possibility to significantly lower the environmental impact of transport in cities and they generate various economic and social benefits. However, sudden increase in their use may bring about a variety of challenges that a newly grown market might not be able to respond to effectively. In France for example, where the government has proposed free bicycle repairs, residents have been accumulating in front of specialist shops. In that context, rural areas have not been given enough attention in the discussions on mobility in recent months even though they have a potential to become key sites in the clean mobility of tomorrow.

In addition to changes in our individual choices, a sustainable transition to micro-mobilities requires a strong push from the policy-makers at the national and European level who are crucial actors in the promotion of non-polluting private vehicles and clean mobility.

Written by Emma Pacchiodo & Margaux Arraitz

Emma Pacchiodo studied for a Bachelor at the School of Political and Social Sciences, then went to Sciences Po Bordeaux and Paris for a Master in partnership. She specialised in urban strategies and governance and has just finished her end-of-studies internship at UN-Habitat where she was in charge of a project of slum upgrading in Conakry.

Margaux Arraitz studied for a Bachelor at the School of Political and Social Sciences, she went to University College London for her Master, where she specialised in International Public Policy. After an internship in crisis management earlier this year, she is currently prospecting for a PhD position, with a topic related to political ecology.